台積電~「朕不給,你不能搶!」 - 股票
By Belly
at 2021-03-24T17:37
at 2021-03-24T17:37
Table of Contents
※ 引述《blackdog173 (黑狗)》之銘言:
: 早上那篇「朕不給,你不能搶!」,不少人覺得台積電的成果是台灣便宜的水電跟願意輪
: 三班制下的成績,且目前Intel跟台積電的製程差距很大,即使Intel在美設廠也不會動搖
: 台積電的根基,真的是這樣嗎?
: 30多年前,日本在半導體業差點輾壓美國,最後卻是從高峰時占據全球近80%的DRAM市場
: 佔有率,跌到現在的零。
: 1980年,日本攻下30%的半導體記憶體市場,5年後,日本的市場佔有率超過50%,1981年
: ,AMD淨利潤下降2/3,國家半導體虧損1,100萬美元,上一年還賺了5,200萬美元呢。第二
: 年,英特爾被逼裁掉2,000名員工。1985年英特爾繳械投降,宣佈退出DRAM業務,這場戰
: 爭讓它虧掉了1.73億美元。
: 美國半導體行業協會(簡稱SIA)遊說7年,得到政府的回應總是:美國是自由市場,政府
: 權力不應染指企業經營活動。
: 1985年6月,SIA向華盛頓提出一個說法:美國半導體業的疲弱,將給國家安全帶來重大風
: 險。
: SIA當時的邏輯鏈是這樣的:
: (1) 因為超級武器技術離不開超級電子技術,超級電子技術又離不開最新半導體技術;
: (2) 如果美國的半導體技術落後,美國軍方將被迫在關鍵電子零組件使用外國產品包括日
: 本貨;
: (3) 外國貨源不可靠,戰爭時期會對美國斷貨,非戰爭時期還會向美國的對手蘇聯供貨;
: (4) 所以,美國放任日本在半導體晶片領域稱霸,就等於犧牲國家安全。
: 1986年春,日本被認定唯讀儲存器傾銷;9月,《美日半導體協議》簽署,日本被要求開
: 放半導體市場,保證5年內國外公司獲得20%市場佔有率;不久,對日本出口的3億美元晶
: 片徵收100%懲罰性關稅。
: 美國人這一波操作至少開創了兩個記錄:第一次對盟友的經濟利益進行全球打擊;第一次
: 以國家安全為由,將貿易爭端從經濟學變成政治經濟學問題。(未來為了扶持美國本土產
: 業,對台灣產品課稅不是不可能,已有日本的先例了)
: 這場晶片戰爭詮釋了什麼叫國際政治經濟學。
: 今年《彭博社》撰文指出「全球依賴台灣已到危險等級」,凸顯台灣在半導體產業關鍵地
: 位,而《日經中文網》也評論道,過去美國為了抵制日本半導體的壟斷而開創美式水平分
: 工,美方為致力上游設計研發,將附加價值小的製造工廠甩給亞洲,沒想到,分工不斷深
: 化之後,當年投入製造的台積電卻逐漸擁有出乎意料的實力,現在就連美國也感到不安。
: 美國人工智慧國家安全委員會(NSCAI)3月初對國會提出正式建議報告。報告強調,美國
: 需要建立「本土強韌」的半導體設計與製造基地。美國因為對台灣晶圓代工的依賴,將有
: 失去半導體優勢的風險,而掌握半導體先進技術攸關商業與軍事上的成功。
: 如日經中文網所述,「每次只要美國挑起事端,就會打破平衡」。
: 我們都身處於轉捩點之中...
抄路邊廢文就省省8
= =
我直說惹
牙膏CEO直播一直強調
會給客戶保證產量
現在聽起來好像很棒喇
因為大家去GG都在排隊
好惹仔細想想984這樣惹
牙膏缺貨的時候有在跟客戶保證供應嗎
沒有麻
所以尼fab跟人家保證產量
意思是捨摸
意思9產能利用率很低喇
當然可以保證產量
沒人要自然利用率低
牙膏ceo講的意思就這樣惹
他自己也知道沒人要
牙膏想做代工又不是一天兩天惹
新ceo拿老梗粗乃炒一炒
整串除惹地緣政治問題以外
通通都老梗
騙美國跟歐洲政府而已
要說牙膏這代工會怎樣
幾年前GF28nm也曾經找到amd以外的大戶
Q康大M等等都去過
就落後GG三四年
所以也賺不到錢惹
牙膏這套長線上超級利空
當前幾大潛在客戶 各大豬屎屋
扣掉不可能的蘇媽以外
一葛比一葛雞巴
通通都是錢我賺不分尼那種
技術落後GG的情況下
這些大單也就塞產能而已
財報上去就完惹 整體毛利崩盤
這件事情最可憐的就
牙膏fab端員工
牙膏現在94在往分拆之路靠近
董事會心也真的很黑
找惹葛德高望重的老牙膏來接CEO
喊一堆東西
除惹穩定軍心以外也不能幹嘛
實際上fab端的頭也知道
這些CEO口中的策略都4變相的軍令狀
沒辦法追上GG 通通殺頭
分拆之後底下的員工大概一半失業
想到兩千多年前白起一戰坑殺趙兵40萬
GG
殺孽深重R
--
: 早上那篇「朕不給,你不能搶!」,不少人覺得台積電的成果是台灣便宜的水電跟願意輪
: 三班制下的成績,且目前Intel跟台積電的製程差距很大,即使Intel在美設廠也不會動搖
: 台積電的根基,真的是這樣嗎?
: 30多年前,日本在半導體業差點輾壓美國,最後卻是從高峰時占據全球近80%的DRAM市場
: 佔有率,跌到現在的零。
: 1980年,日本攻下30%的半導體記憶體市場,5年後,日本的市場佔有率超過50%,1981年
: ,AMD淨利潤下降2/3,國家半導體虧損1,100萬美元,上一年還賺了5,200萬美元呢。第二
: 年,英特爾被逼裁掉2,000名員工。1985年英特爾繳械投降,宣佈退出DRAM業務,這場戰
: 爭讓它虧掉了1.73億美元。
: 美國半導體行業協會(簡稱SIA)遊說7年,得到政府的回應總是:美國是自由市場,政府
: 權力不應染指企業經營活動。
: 1985年6月,SIA向華盛頓提出一個說法:美國半導體業的疲弱,將給國家安全帶來重大風
: 險。
: SIA當時的邏輯鏈是這樣的:
: (1) 因為超級武器技術離不開超級電子技術,超級電子技術又離不開最新半導體技術;
: (2) 如果美國的半導體技術落後,美國軍方將被迫在關鍵電子零組件使用外國產品包括日
: 本貨;
: (3) 外國貨源不可靠,戰爭時期會對美國斷貨,非戰爭時期還會向美國的對手蘇聯供貨;
: (4) 所以,美國放任日本在半導體晶片領域稱霸,就等於犧牲國家安全。
: 1986年春,日本被認定唯讀儲存器傾銷;9月,《美日半導體協議》簽署,日本被要求開
: 放半導體市場,保證5年內國外公司獲得20%市場佔有率;不久,對日本出口的3億美元晶
: 片徵收100%懲罰性關稅。
: 美國人這一波操作至少開創了兩個記錄:第一次對盟友的經濟利益進行全球打擊;第一次
: 以國家安全為由,將貿易爭端從經濟學變成政治經濟學問題。(未來為了扶持美國本土產
: 業,對台灣產品課稅不是不可能,已有日本的先例了)
: 這場晶片戰爭詮釋了什麼叫國際政治經濟學。
: 今年《彭博社》撰文指出「全球依賴台灣已到危險等級」,凸顯台灣在半導體產業關鍵地
: 位,而《日經中文網》也評論道,過去美國為了抵制日本半導體的壟斷而開創美式水平分
: 工,美方為致力上游設計研發,將附加價值小的製造工廠甩給亞洲,沒想到,分工不斷深
: 化之後,當年投入製造的台積電卻逐漸擁有出乎意料的實力,現在就連美國也感到不安。
: 美國人工智慧國家安全委員會(NSCAI)3月初對國會提出正式建議報告。報告強調,美國
: 需要建立「本土強韌」的半導體設計與製造基地。美國因為對台灣晶圓代工的依賴,將有
: 失去半導體優勢的風險,而掌握半導體先進技術攸關商業與軍事上的成功。
: 如日經中文網所述,「每次只要美國挑起事端,就會打破平衡」。
: 我們都身處於轉捩點之中...
抄路邊廢文就省省8
= =
我直說惹
牙膏CEO直播一直強調
會給客戶保證產量
現在聽起來好像很棒喇
因為大家去GG都在排隊
好惹仔細想想984這樣惹
牙膏缺貨的時候有在跟客戶保證供應嗎
沒有麻
所以尼fab跟人家保證產量
意思是捨摸
意思9產能利用率很低喇
當然可以保證產量
沒人要自然利用率低
牙膏ceo講的意思就這樣惹
他自己也知道沒人要
牙膏想做代工又不是一天兩天惹
新ceo拿老梗粗乃炒一炒
整串除惹地緣政治問題以外
通通都老梗
騙美國跟歐洲政府而已
要說牙膏這代工會怎樣
幾年前GF28nm也曾經找到amd以外的大戶
Q康大M等等都去過
就落後GG三四年
所以也賺不到錢惹
牙膏這套長線上超級利空
當前幾大潛在客戶 各大豬屎屋
扣掉不可能的蘇媽以外
一葛比一葛雞巴
通通都是錢我賺不分尼那種
技術落後GG的情況下
這些大單也就塞產能而已
財報上去就完惹 整體毛利崩盤
這件事情最可憐的就
牙膏fab端員工
牙膏現在94在往分拆之路靠近
董事會心也真的很黑
找惹葛德高望重的老牙膏來接CEO
喊一堆東西
除惹穩定軍心以外也不能幹嘛
實際上fab端的頭也知道
這些CEO口中的策略都4變相的軍令狀
沒辦法追上GG 通通殺頭
分拆之後底下的員工大概一半失業
想到兩千多年前白起一戰坑殺趙兵40萬
GG
殺孽深重R
--
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