台灣經濟要走入95分前段班 童子賢:不能 - 股票

By Gary
at 2020-09-17T13:46
at 2020-09-17T13:46
Table of Contents
現代台灣社會要繼續往上轉型,是非常複雜的系統工程
寫計畫的智庫要對基層非常了解,而且有動員大量實戰型研究者的整合能力
然後領導者有完全了解這些計劃的素養,以及高超的執行力
然後資金要到位,人才要到位,法規要到位,匯率要到位,
中央政府要到位,地方政府要到位
這些到位有時間限制,要在一季半年內到位,否則國際環境條件轉瞬即變
這就是系統工程
就像一隻iPhone要產品做得完美,CPU要做好,記憶體要做好,
OS要做好,裝置間的IO要輾平瓶頸,要藝術性取捨在效能/耗電/好用上完美平衡
達到最大效用輸出
複雜度是可以用計算機組織結構的評估法來計算的
系統工程的複雜度評估法跨領域借來借去都大同小異
台灣經濟的轉型與改革,複雜度比iPhone製造大概多兩個量級以上
不是不可能,但趨近於零,現在完全沒有條件
1. 智庫都在打茫寫作文
2. 領導者在忙別的事沒有空 也沒有素質與能力真正了解全景
只好寫作文安撫安撫百姓
3. 前述條列的台灣單位都被各種派系佔滿 派系利益不一致
現在的台灣領導者政治能量不夠 不具有整合指揮能力 也不具有處理法規的能量
4. 掌握資金的單位都是肥貓 最重視的是官位與地位 不想冒險也沒有動機冒險
5. 不存在人才(都在國外),台灣既有機構會排擠人才
每一個零件的複雜度都很高,經濟轉型需要跨到至少十個瓶頸
高複雜度 x 10次方 = 複雜度頂天到爆表
你直接把難度寫成endless nine(999無限)都可以
會覺得台灣經濟轉型有任何希望的,都是完全搞錯了複雜度的量級
除非李登輝陳水扁再世,台灣的經濟轉型你想都不用想
要等轉型慢慢等個4年8年12年,還要看當時的骰子擲得夠好,骰不骰得出好領導者
那個領導者是否能有足夠的能量、不被其他因素牽制、執行力與領導藝術高不高明
人要挑簡單的事情做,國家不經濟轉型,你可以自己經濟轉型
複習一下剛剛轉型的條件
智庫(戰略) - 自己練
有執行力的領導者 - 你自己
資金 - 新加坡等鄰國都有,不缺資金,是你計劃不夠現實
人才 - 世界很多,Linkedin到處挖,付錢給獵頭找
法規 - 直接到法規友善的地區開公司
匯率 - 自己發展
中央政府,地方政府 - 直接跳到友善的政府
你會覺得看起來好像天方夜谭
但你自己是完全可控的變因,其實複雜度全部乘起來算一算會發現
你把自己搞發達,複雜度會低於國家經濟轉型四個量級以上
你靠自己憑空搞出一間上市公司或很賺錢的公司 機率>>>>>> 國家經濟轉型
記住「複雜度」的概念,重點:
1. 搞自己發達遠比等待國家轉型簡單
很多人覺得個人發展沒希望 於是寄望國家轉型 那是完全搞錯方向
2. 小公司發達遠比大公司轉型簡單
如果你是Acer的高管,你要期待Acer轉型成Facebook
你不如直接開一間Facebook會比較簡單,一樣,這是系統的問題
大公司的官僚體制會互相牽制,把複雜度提高好幾個量級,以至於成功率逼近零
如果你覺得都很難,表示這些事本來就和你無關,你就不用抱怨了
你乖乖買指數基金過小日子就好 一樣幸福快樂
現在東南亞到處都在起飛,買他們的REITs=當年台灣買房
搞搞海外投資 過過台灣文青生活 騙吃騙吃
接受自己是第三世界的事實 至少短期間是
--
Tags:
股票
All Comments

By Joe
at 2020-09-22T08:50
at 2020-09-22T08:50

By Olivia
at 2020-09-25T03:21
at 2020-09-25T03:21

By Una
at 2020-09-29T16:10
at 2020-09-29T16:10

By Christine
at 2020-09-30T12:22
at 2020-09-30T12:22

By Rachel
at 2020-09-30T17:56
at 2020-09-30T17:56

By James
at 2020-10-04T07:04
at 2020-10-04T07:04

By Isla
at 2020-10-06T03:28
at 2020-10-06T03:28

By Erin
at 2020-10-07T18:08
at 2020-10-07T18:08

By Vanessa
at 2020-10-10T23:09
at 2020-10-10T23:09

By Wallis
at 2020-10-15T05:53
at 2020-10-15T05:53

By Audriana
at 2020-10-16T07:02
at 2020-10-16T07:02

By Harry
at 2020-10-17T07:43
at 2020-10-17T07:43

By Dinah
at 2020-10-17T21:00
at 2020-10-17T21:00

By Noah
at 2020-10-18T07:11
at 2020-10-18T07:11

By Leila
at 2020-10-22T17:53
at 2020-10-22T17:53

By Edward Lewis
at 2020-10-27T00:53
at 2020-10-27T00:53

By Ethan
at 2020-10-28T17:11
at 2020-10-28T17:11

By Una
at 2020-11-01T02:23
at 2020-11-01T02:23

By Zenobia
at 2020-11-02T04:33
at 2020-11-02T04:33

By Jessica
at 2020-11-06T09:01
at 2020-11-06T09:01

By Tristan Cohan
at 2020-11-06T16:57
at 2020-11-06T16:57

By Enid
at 2020-11-09T14:43
at 2020-11-09T14:43

By Frederic
at 2020-11-09T19:03
at 2020-11-09T19:03

By Leila
at 2020-11-11T07:30
at 2020-11-11T07:30

By Poppy
at 2020-11-15T16:15
at 2020-11-15T16:15

By Zanna
at 2020-11-16T06:50
at 2020-11-16T06:50

By Frederica
at 2020-11-19T15:03
at 2020-11-19T15:03

By Vanessa
at 2020-11-22T20:55
at 2020-11-22T20:55

By Zanna
at 2020-11-24T13:01
at 2020-11-24T13:01

By Edwina
at 2020-11-29T06:45
at 2020-11-29T06:45

By Isabella
at 2020-12-03T02:33
at 2020-12-03T02:33

By Zanna
at 2020-12-05T17:26
at 2020-12-05T17:26

By Lucy
at 2020-12-09T23:41
at 2020-12-09T23:41

By Heather
at 2020-12-11T15:23
at 2020-12-11T15:23

By Delia
at 2020-12-13T00:32
at 2020-12-13T00:32

By Adele
at 2020-12-16T15:17
at 2020-12-16T15:17

By Erin
at 2020-12-17T13:16
at 2020-12-17T13:16

By Jacky
at 2020-12-19T11:55
at 2020-12-19T11:55

By Todd Johnson
at 2020-12-21T05:29
at 2020-12-21T05:29

By Tracy
at 2020-12-25T17:26
at 2020-12-25T17:26

By Olive
at 2020-12-29T13:39
at 2020-12-29T13:39

By Rosalind
at 2020-12-29T21:18
at 2020-12-29T21:18

By Olivia
at 2021-01-03T09:49
at 2021-01-03T09:49

By Jacob
at 2021-01-04T05:53
at 2021-01-04T05:53

By Olive
at 2021-01-05T03:16
at 2021-01-05T03:16

By Ophelia
at 2021-01-06T05:53
at 2021-01-06T05:53

By Andy
at 2021-01-07T18:45
at 2021-01-07T18:45

By Agatha
at 2021-01-12T00:55
at 2021-01-12T00:55

By Kumar
at 2021-01-15T12:32
at 2021-01-15T12:32

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2021-01-17T15:24
at 2021-01-17T15:24

By Charlie
at 2021-01-19T09:23
at 2021-01-19T09:23

By Wallis
at 2021-01-22T05:13
at 2021-01-22T05:13

By Sandy
at 2021-01-24T03:05
at 2021-01-24T03:05

By Madame
at 2021-01-24T08:10
at 2021-01-24T08:10

By Isabella
at 2021-01-29T06:37
at 2021-01-29T06:37

By Frederica
at 2021-01-29T23:32
at 2021-01-29T23:32

By Valerie
at 2021-01-30T22:31
at 2021-01-30T22:31

By Olga
at 2021-02-01T07:32
at 2021-02-01T07:32

By Valerie
at 2021-02-02T08:37
at 2021-02-02T08:37

By Odelette
at 2021-02-04T02:49
at 2021-02-04T02:49

By James
at 2021-02-07T22:57
at 2021-02-07T22:57

By Joe
at 2021-02-12T05:27
at 2021-02-12T05:27

By Daniel
at 2021-02-15T05:14
at 2021-02-15T05:14

By Rae
at 2021-02-17T13:52
at 2021-02-17T13:52

By Mia
at 2021-02-20T18:58
at 2021-02-20T18:58

By Gary
at 2021-02-25T09:24
at 2021-02-25T09:24

By John
at 2021-02-28T21:21
at 2021-02-28T21:21

By Oliver
at 2021-03-02T19:19
at 2021-03-02T19:19

By Doris
at 2021-03-05T13:26
at 2021-03-05T13:26

By James
at 2021-03-08T21:53
at 2021-03-08T21:53

By Edward Lewis
at 2021-03-11T19:33
at 2021-03-11T19:33

By Faithe
at 2021-03-15T17:32
at 2021-03-15T17:32

By Yedda
at 2021-03-17T22:57
at 2021-03-17T22:57
Related Posts
2609 陽明(多)

By John
at 2020-09-17T13:08
at 2020-09-17T13:08
張忠謀持股市值增至572億元

By Bennie
at 2020-09-17T12:56
at 2020-09-17T12:56
永豐金推「豐存股」讓存股跟網購一樣容易

By Elma
at 2020-09-17T12:54
at 2020-09-17T12:54
波克夏1天海撈8億美元! Snowflake飆111%

By Leila
at 2020-09-17T12:35
at 2020-09-17T12:35
台灣經濟要走入95分前段班 童子賢:不能

By Candice
at 2020-09-17T12:32
at 2020-09-17T12:32