台灣疫情透明度高 預期有轉單效應 - 股票
By Anthony
at 2020-02-16T20:08
at 2020-02-16T20:08
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ec.ltn.com.tw/amp/article/breakingnews/3069548
2.原文內容:
〔記者王孟倫/台北報導〕針對武漢肺炎(新冠肺炎)對我國經濟可能影響,金融研訓院
出具最新報告指出,受到出口動能拖累之影響,我國官方已經下修今年全年GDP成長率,
不過,相較於中國大陸,台灣疫情資訊高度透明,台商產能可望進一步回流,並促使國際
大廠轉向對台供應鏈廠商下單。
根據金融研訓院發布的「武漢肺炎(新冠肺炎)對經濟金融情勢之影響評估分析」報告指
出,武漢疫情的升溫,造成中國許多生產與消費活動的停擺,因此,多家國際機構紛紛調
降中國的GDP成長率。
目前對中國大陸GDP提出下修預測的包括: 瑞銀下修至5.4%,疫情若失控將難保五;美國
銀行下修至5.6%,進一步惡化則為5%;香港銀行家吳明德甚至下修到4%。
金融研訓院表示,若此GDP下修數據發生,將使得中國銀行體系面臨輕度到重度的信用風
險衝擊,預計將有9-17家銀行的償付能力出現問題。根據人行的壓力測試結果顯示,信用
風險是中國銀行的主要風險來源,約佔銀行全部損失的八成。
此外,對台灣影響方面,金融研訓院指出,我國官方最新下修今年全年經濟表現,主計總
處2月12最新發布2020年經濟預測,在武漢肺炎疫情衝擊下,將今年GDP成長率預測下修0.
35個百分點至2.37%,主要受到出口拖累影響,今年GDP經濟保2將是關鍵,然而,「出口
雖受影響、但也可能有轉單效應」。
金融研訓院說明,由於中國境內疫情資訊不甚透明,影響外資對後市研判,導致當地市場
能見度低,製造業供應鏈出貨能力及時效受到考驗。
相對來說,在台灣市場訂單能見度較高,預估上半年在台灣產製部分的訂單能見度及成長
幅度,均優於中國市場接單。
基於上述考量,金融研訓院認為,台商產能可望進一步回流,並促使國際大廠轉向對台供
應鏈廠商下單、也就是轉單效應,以及加速對國內投資案的進度並擴大投資金額。
3.心得/評論:
台灣政府每天開記者會隨時報告最新進度
相信政府 台商回流ing
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