半導體產業為什麼不會衰退 - 股票
By Poppy
at 2020-07-25T13:18
at 2020-07-25T13:18
Table of Contents
其實半導體是運氣好剛好都有新應用銜接上
所以看不出明顯的衰退
PC飽和後 開始流行筆電
筆電將近飽和後 又迎來智慧手機 平板爆發
當智慧手機又開始慢慢往飽和方向走的時候
AI開始有實際應用後引爆各大廠無盡的算力需求
個人認為半導體要衰退 唯一的情況就是
生物電腦可以實用化
也就是經過DNA修改讓人可以在培養皿中
生產類似大腦的神經網路 並且有辦法處理和外界的I/O
如果這個生物電腦的構想成真 那半導體就會迎來衰退
但這個估計恐怕也要五十年以上才有1%機會成真
--
所以看不出明顯的衰退
PC飽和後 開始流行筆電
筆電將近飽和後 又迎來智慧手機 平板爆發
當智慧手機又開始慢慢往飽和方向走的時候
AI開始有實際應用後引爆各大廠無盡的算力需求
個人認為半導體要衰退 唯一的情況就是
生物電腦可以實用化
也就是經過DNA修改讓人可以在培養皿中
生產類似大腦的神經網路 並且有辦法處理和外界的I/O
如果這個生物電腦的構想成真 那半導體就會迎來衰退
但這個估計恐怕也要五十年以上才有1%機會成真
--
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