加權指數 空 - 股票
By Skylar Davis
at 2018-02-15T01:34
at 2018-02-15T01:34
Table of Contents
1. 標的：台灣加權指數
2. 分類：空
3. 分析/正文：
台股目前已經到頂，我姑且列出2/12台股大盤收盤的價格，
分別以日線、周線、月線來看。
日線
https://imgur.com/H0qTxXE
周線(右方)
https://imgur.com/6Q98wqp
月線(右上方)
https://imgur.com/KXNIJIt
是否有發現萬點以上的趨勢線，是由10300-10400之間的點位串連的水平線
也就是說，這是「頂」！
假設目前台股在頂這件事情成立，再來談談下一個支撐。
有人可能把圖形往前拉，看到9550、8800左右的支撐，但說真的
這些支撐都沒有20150824那天的7500穩。
同樣的狀況，道瓊也是如此。
目前有兩次千點大跌的回檔，每次回漲都是在雙周線(10T線)以下的死貓跳，
在本周以來的漲幅，也未曾碰到10T線)。(見下圖)
https://imgur.com/mb8v2F3
以平均每過一天，10T線降100的速度來看。
目前10T均線位在24777，那即使假設今天收平盤，
明天也將碰觸到道瓊現貨價格，然後又有可能再次大跌。(500點以上)
4. 進退場機制：(非長期投資者，必須有停損機制)
(1)若道瓊站穩10T線，則台股轉多頭慢漲格局
目前是基於道瓊現貨價格碰觸雙周線必跌的假設，評斷目前是空頭。
如果道瓊現貨價格可以衝過雙周線(10T)均線，並站穩，
那有機會回到大跌前緩漲格局，對於台股壓力也減輕。
(2)道瓊若年節開關前站穩10T線，台股可能再次頂部震盪。
若道瓊站穩10T線，則台股可能再走一次於頂部創新高再回跌10350。
反之，道瓊若近期大跌，台股可能這次不會再次於頂部震盪，
下探20150824的的支撐(最低非直達)。
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