做對再加碼 ? - 財經

By Suhail Hany
at 2009-05-07T21:42
at 2009-05-07T21:42
Table of Contents
請問各位大大
做對再加碼,加碼這一筆的勝率是否比做對這一筆的勝率高 ??
解釋
假設 做對的勝率是 50% (選股功力.....)
加碼的情況
A:勝率依然是 50% (因為該視為單筆交易,功力一樣,故維持50%)
B:勝率提高到 >50% (因為股市跟賭梭哈一樣,拿到好牌,當然加碼)
一般數學計算,一定選A
但是成功的作手,都是做對加碼,所以應該是選B
問題是我們一定要做對才加碼嗎?
依這 做對加碼的定義來看
假設 做對是模擬單(漲了5%),然後我就可以加碼了(真實單) <== 我的勝率會提高嗎?
此時的勝率是50% 還是>50%?
我想了很久,無法證明「做對加碼(加碼單)」的勝率比較高
有大大能解釋這個鑽牛角尖的問題嗎?
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