中國地產泡沫對股市的影響性如何? - 股票

By Zanna
at 2019-10-26T17:03
at 2019-10-26T17:03
Table of Contents
中國地產商 恆大 萬科 碧桂園 等大型開發商 負債比
率都高達85% 甚至90%以上 扣除掉 存貨 流動資產
比流動負債 低於100% 更慘的甚至不到60% 明年
有高達百億美元的1x%的短年期債券到期 加之現在
中國打房力道強勁 部分地區已用腰斬方式清盤 如
果存貨大幅跌價 對於當初給銀行的抵押是否會不
足?需要在重新補足抵押品 或是能融資的金額減
少 產生現金流不足的風險
請問一下 若中國地產泡沫在近兩年破滅 對於整體
總體經濟及股市的影響到底有多大?
現在想到的是
1.台灣金融業對陸曝險上兆元 銀行產生大量呆帳
2.內需市場急凍 造成科技商品需求急速下滑
3.大宗原物料價格暴跌
4.航運景氣衰退
但也想到 2008年美國政府接管兩房的案子 中國政
府是否有能力承接 數兆元rmb的負債 甚至上千億美
元的外債? 還有中國政府是否有能力去避免這個風
險的產生? 但這個看似已知但又是未知的風險是否
會引爆下一次的金融危機?
--
率都高達85% 甚至90%以上 扣除掉 存貨 流動資產
比流動負債 低於100% 更慘的甚至不到60% 明年
有高達百億美元的1x%的短年期債券到期 加之現在
中國打房力道強勁 部分地區已用腰斬方式清盤 如
果存貨大幅跌價 對於當初給銀行的抵押是否會不
足?需要在重新補足抵押品 或是能融資的金額減
少 產生現金流不足的風險
請問一下 若中國地產泡沫在近兩年破滅 對於整體
總體經濟及股市的影響到底有多大?
現在想到的是
1.台灣金融業對陸曝險上兆元 銀行產生大量呆帳
2.內需市場急凍 造成科技商品需求急速下滑
3.大宗原物料價格暴跌
4.航運景氣衰退
但也想到 2008年美國政府接管兩房的案子 中國政
府是否有能力承接 數兆元rmb的負債 甚至上千億美
元的外債? 還有中國政府是否有能力去避免這個風
險的產生? 但這個看似已知但又是未知的風險是否
會引爆下一次的金融危機?
--
Tags:
股票
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