三個理由告訴你 為何鴻海是存股好標的 - 股票
By Isla
at 2018-04-12T07:49
at 2018-04-12T07:49
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://goo.gl/TmbwJc
2.原文內容:
去年某外資機構發表目標價超過200元的報告,對鴻海的競爭力優勢做了詳盡的分析,很有參考的價值。本欄當時以營收與獲利成長不穩定、現金股息對股東權益不夠大方三個理由,判定這家公司無法成為與台積電同等級的偉大公司。一年過去了,台股指數穩穩站上萬點,但是鴻海股價卻是下跌的。
鴻海是不是就沒投資價值了?當然不是。第一個,股價不漲,配息還可以,正是存股好標的。以它最近幾年的營運狀況來看,已經不受單一產業單一商品的影響,這是半個世紀前,美國專業投資機構最喜歡的藍籌股。營運跨度大,也就是分散風險,成長性或許不佳,勝在穩定,符合退休金、保險公司,也是現代存股族的根本需求。須知鴻海現在的配息率,在台股五十成分股裡,算是領先族群。
第二個,鴻海畢竟是台灣最有代表性的企業,時不時就會有熱點出現,例如即將發生的子公司在A股閃電上市,讓股價有機會出現波段大漲。結合第一點與第二點,以存股的操作方式累積鴻海持股,碰到大漲時,隨意進出多賺點零花錢。
第三個是(沒有客觀的證據支持,純粹是筆者個人推論),如果哪天郭老闆要組織改造,鴻海減資個20%、30%之類的,股價應該還是落後台積電一大截,但是追上台達電的機率不小!
減資的代表作是國巨,2013年開始這項財務工程,股價從票面保衛戰一路翻升成為高價股。陳老闆自己賺得滿缽滿盆,股東們也跟著過上好日子。假如鴻海從銀行借錢來支應減資要配發的現金,對台灣的貢獻會更大。
首先股價上漲已經是很大的利益,其次,鴻海辦個幾百上千億元聯貸,將會降低銀行業的爛頭寸比率,連央行都分得到績效。最後,這件事還能降低鴻海的財務成本,提高資本報酬率,讓鴻海股票更具投資價值。
以鴻海的債信,向銀行借錢的利率會比我們的房貸更低。不管是哪個標準,都比配給股東5%、6%的現金股息率要低很多。而且,付銀行利息可以抵稅,分股東股息是繳稅後的現金。股本降低,財務槓桿加大,資本報酬率是乘數增加,這個比率又是法人最看重的指標,只要這比率提高一、兩個百分點,不用辦法說會,股價都會飄飄然站上三位數的。
3.心得/評:
說存股,又期待FII上巿有大漲波段,是存一個月嗎?鴻海是可以存股,但在毛利下降,FII上巿後,鴻海變成(會計)控股公司,願意在65塊以下存一張
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Sent from JPTT on my HTC_U-1u.
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