「歡迎來到大海賊時代」 - 股票

By Quintina
at 2020-12-30T22:01
at 2020-12-30T22:01
Table of Contents
航運股飆破天際,船公司歡慶豐收,與此同時缺船、缺櫃的情況已經引發不少失序亂象,
誠如哥爾‧羅傑所說,財寶都放在那裡了,想要就去找吧。
12 月 25 日聖誕節的傍晚 5 點半,一通電話響起。
「王小姐,跟妳說一下,今天要出去的那條船因為超收了,你們有 6 個櫃要拉掉,下禮
拜再排位子喔。」
接電話的人是貨運承攬業務,多年的經驗讓他立馬做出反應,他一手請船公司先別掛電話
,另一手已經打給正在準備慶祝節日的客戶。
「我跟你說,船公司說要拉掉 6 個櫃,你如果一定要趕在今天出貨,就加錢吧,一櫃兩
百。」
這一頭接電話的出口商,牙一咬,1,200 塊美金就給他吧,萬一今天沒能出貨,下禮拜還
不知道搶不搶得到船位,而且今天漲 200,下週搞不好漲 300。
目前航運一位難求的「盛況」下,光是能夠擠上船,就要跪下來感謝業務幫忙了,如果關
係不好交情差,你想加錢上船都沒機會。如我們之前的報導所述,目前海運報價是每週調
漲,毫無意外的,下週台灣往北美的船,每櫃價格又再增加 1 千美元。
公司搶船,司機搶櫃
出口商與貨運承攬公司卯起來想辦法搶船位,想要把貨送出海,另一個稀缺資源也前所未
見的引發爭奪戰,那就是空貨櫃。上週,兩位貨車司機在櫃場大打出手,就為了搶到全場
最後一個空貨櫃。
在太平盛世時,船公司會給貨車司機一個號碼牌,讓司機到指定的貨櫃放置場,把空貨櫃
載到出口商的工廠,裝滿貨物後,送到港口櫃場準備登船,司機再領牌去拉下一個空貨櫃
,如此循環不息。
打破這個循環的,是從今年第四季開始的缺櫃問題,導致司機送完貨之後,就沒櫃子可以
領。據業內人士轉述,這兩位不惜肉搏搶貨櫃的司機,其中一位從凌晨四點就到櫃場待命
,一直等到下午四點才終於有一個空櫃可以領。
但不知道是管理上有誤會,或是現場排隊起爭議,兩位司機都已經等櫃子等到不耐煩,因
此爭執之下才引發肢體衝突。如果時間倒轉一年,你跟任何一位卡車司機說,你們以後會
搶不到貨櫃,肯定會被當成笑話。
目前大量的空貨櫃被堆置在歐洲和美國等進口大國,由於船位吃緊,幾乎沒位子給空貨櫃
,造成目前供需失衡,甚至有船公司正在準備弄一條專船,要去拉空貨櫃回來。但諷刺的
是,運價越高,專船的機會成本就越高,互相疊加起來,變成可怕的漲價循環。
最近在路邊看見貨櫃屋的時候,也跟着多了一分敬意,如果當初再多撐個幾年,現在它就
是海上最搶手的大祕寶了。
故事說完,現實的可怕還沒完。在新台幣升值,運費暴漲的雙重夾殺之下,出口商的獲利
正在每週每週被侵蝕,貨運承攬商不諱言地說,現在這個世道,如果不到十萬火急,他一
律建議客人不要出貨。
按照市場法則,供需之間終歸會找到一個價格平衡點,運費勢必要繼續上漲,直到出口商
放棄出口,才會產生空船位,這樣就有機會讓貨櫃供需平衡。因此首當其衝的,就是規模
小的出口商,其次就是利潤低的,他們對運費更為敏感,最有可能停止出貨。
大型企業則有更重的交貨壓力,以及更大的風險耐受力,因此不會輕易停止出貨。今年甚
至傳出某車廠為了如期交貨,不惜空運汽車來滿足客戶訂單。
對市井小民來說,只要物價不漲,就影響不大。問題是,運費如海嘯拔地而起的情況下,
物價是否能不動如山?
https://finance.technews.tw/2020/12/30/welcome-to-onepiece-era/
--
誠如哥爾‧羅傑所說,財寶都放在那裡了,想要就去找吧。
12 月 25 日聖誕節的傍晚 5 點半,一通電話響起。
「王小姐,跟妳說一下,今天要出去的那條船因為超收了,你們有 6 個櫃要拉掉,下禮
拜再排位子喔。」
接電話的人是貨運承攬業務,多年的經驗讓他立馬做出反應,他一手請船公司先別掛電話
,另一手已經打給正在準備慶祝節日的客戶。
「我跟你說,船公司說要拉掉 6 個櫃,你如果一定要趕在今天出貨,就加錢吧,一櫃兩
百。」
這一頭接電話的出口商,牙一咬,1,200 塊美金就給他吧,萬一今天沒能出貨,下禮拜還
不知道搶不搶得到船位,而且今天漲 200,下週搞不好漲 300。
目前航運一位難求的「盛況」下,光是能夠擠上船,就要跪下來感謝業務幫忙了,如果關
係不好交情差,你想加錢上船都沒機會。如我們之前的報導所述,目前海運報價是每週調
漲,毫無意外的,下週台灣往北美的船,每櫃價格又再增加 1 千美元。
公司搶船,司機搶櫃
出口商與貨運承攬公司卯起來想辦法搶船位,想要把貨送出海,另一個稀缺資源也前所未
見的引發爭奪戰,那就是空貨櫃。上週,兩位貨車司機在櫃場大打出手,就為了搶到全場
最後一個空貨櫃。
在太平盛世時,船公司會給貨車司機一個號碼牌,讓司機到指定的貨櫃放置場,把空貨櫃
載到出口商的工廠,裝滿貨物後,送到港口櫃場準備登船,司機再領牌去拉下一個空貨櫃
,如此循環不息。
打破這個循環的,是從今年第四季開始的缺櫃問題,導致司機送完貨之後,就沒櫃子可以
領。據業內人士轉述,這兩位不惜肉搏搶貨櫃的司機,其中一位從凌晨四點就到櫃場待命
,一直等到下午四點才終於有一個空櫃可以領。
但不知道是管理上有誤會,或是現場排隊起爭議,兩位司機都已經等櫃子等到不耐煩,因
此爭執之下才引發肢體衝突。如果時間倒轉一年,你跟任何一位卡車司機說,你們以後會
搶不到貨櫃,肯定會被當成笑話。
目前大量的空貨櫃被堆置在歐洲和美國等進口大國,由於船位吃緊,幾乎沒位子給空貨櫃
,造成目前供需失衡,甚至有船公司正在準備弄一條專船,要去拉空貨櫃回來。但諷刺的
是,運價越高,專船的機會成本就越高,互相疊加起來,變成可怕的漲價循環。
最近在路邊看見貨櫃屋的時候,也跟着多了一分敬意,如果當初再多撐個幾年,現在它就
是海上最搶手的大祕寶了。
故事說完,現實的可怕還沒完。在新台幣升值,運費暴漲的雙重夾殺之下,出口商的獲利
正在每週每週被侵蝕,貨運承攬商不諱言地說,現在這個世道,如果不到十萬火急,他一
律建議客人不要出貨。
按照市場法則,供需之間終歸會找到一個價格平衡點,運費勢必要繼續上漲,直到出口商
放棄出口,才會產生空船位,這樣就有機會讓貨櫃供需平衡。因此首當其衝的,就是規模
小的出口商,其次就是利潤低的,他們對運費更為敏感,最有可能停止出貨。
大型企業則有更重的交貨壓力,以及更大的風險耐受力,因此不會輕易停止出貨。今年甚
至傳出某車廠為了如期交貨,不惜空運汽車來滿足客戶訂單。
對市井小民來說,只要物價不漲,就影響不大。問題是,運費如海嘯拔地而起的情況下,
物價是否能不動如山?
https://finance.technews.tw/2020/12/30/welcome-to-onepiece-era/
--
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