vix 跌 但VXX ETF漲? - 股票
By Franklin
at 2020-03-18T23:28
at 2020-03-18T23:28
Table of Contents
※ 引述《blue1011 ()》之銘言:
: 有高手可以解釋一下這種狀況嗎
: https://i.imgur.com/WnwQAUy.jpg
: https://i.imgur.com/ponLCta.jpg
: 這種狀況要怎麼解釋? 還漲10%
: 我個人理解是追VXX ETF的人很多
: 價格繼續炒上去(看好後續期貨?)
: 那何時VXX會去修正並靠攏VIX指標?
主要的原因在於VIX 的Term Structure
在市場平靜時期,VIX的遠月價格高於近月,也就是所謂的Contango
根據富邦VIX的警語:
由於VIX期貨常出現正價差,除了恐造成轉倉之高成本壓力外,基金淨值將因VIX期貨
正價差幅度隨到期日收斂而減損,因此長期持有本基金可能產生極大的損失
指的就是這個現象。
過去10年以來95%以上的時間都是屬於Contango,這也就是大家說的"自動扣血"
最主要的來源。有些人以為自動扣血指的是經理費管理費,但這只佔很小的部分,VIX的
Term Structure才是主要的原因。
但是這個狀況在市場恐慌時剛好相反過來,變成遠月價格低於近月,也就是所謂的
Backwardation,例如金融海嘯時期。而今年從2月底以來,VIX Term Structure轉為逆
價差,轉倉反而會有獲利(因為現貨價高於期貨價)。大家以為的自動扣血,反而變成
"自動加血",這也就是為什麼VXX在金融海嘯時間會持續飆漲,也是造成近期當VIX現貨
小跌,VXX卻繼續漲的原因。
這個時間點想要空富邦VIX的要小心,因為現在處於自動加血階段。
至少要等VIX Term Structure負斜率狀況趨緩比較適合空。
可以至以下網站查詢相關資訊
http://vixcentral.com/
--
: 有高手可以解釋一下這種狀況嗎
: https://i.imgur.com/WnwQAUy.jpg
: https://i.imgur.com/ponLCta.jpg
: 這種狀況要怎麼解釋? 還漲10%
: 我個人理解是追VXX ETF的人很多
: 價格繼續炒上去(看好後續期貨?)
: 那何時VXX會去修正並靠攏VIX指標?
主要的原因在於VIX 的Term Structure
在市場平靜時期,VIX的遠月價格高於近月,也就是所謂的Contango
根據富邦VIX的警語:
由於VIX期貨常出現正價差,除了恐造成轉倉之高成本壓力外,基金淨值將因VIX期貨
正價差幅度隨到期日收斂而減損,因此長期持有本基金可能產生極大的損失
指的就是這個現象。
過去10年以來95%以上的時間都是屬於Contango,這也就是大家說的"自動扣血"
最主要的來源。有些人以為自動扣血指的是經理費管理費,但這只佔很小的部分,VIX的
Term Structure才是主要的原因。
但是這個狀況在市場恐慌時剛好相反過來,變成遠月價格低於近月,也就是所謂的
Backwardation,例如金融海嘯時期。而今年從2月底以來,VIX Term Structure轉為逆
價差,轉倉反而會有獲利(因為現貨價高於期貨價)。大家以為的自動扣血,反而變成
"自動加血",這也就是為什麼VXX在金融海嘯時間會持續飆漲,也是造成近期當VIX現貨
小跌,VXX卻繼續漲的原因。
這個時間點想要空富邦VIX的要小心,因為現在處於自動加血階段。
至少要等VIX Term Structure負斜率狀況趨緩比較適合空。
可以至以下網站查詢相關資訊
http://vixcentral.com/
--
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