Suez Canal could be blocked by 'beache - 股票

原文標題：

Suez Canal could be blocked by 'beached whale' tanker for days
蘇伊士運河被擱淺的巨鯨塞好塞滿卡洞好幾天

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/4yqrR2

發布時間：

Thu, March 25, 2021, 4:41 PM

原文內容：

The Suez canal, a major waterway blocked by a huge container ship that ran
aground on Tuesday, remains blocked despite efforts to dislodge the vessel.
Media reports say this has caused a massive queue of more than 150 containers
in the Suez region impacting both global shipping traffic as well as oil
prices on Wednesday.

It is unclear how long it will take to move the ship. Some experts say it
could be done over the next few days while others have warned it could take
weeks.

The ship is blocking the path of other vessels travelling in both directions
across the Suez, bringing 13% of the world’s trade to a halt. About $10bn (￡
7.3bn) worth of goods is expected to join the jam every day until the
container is moved out of the way.

Egyptian tug boats have so far failed to pull the ship free and on Thursday
morning it was reported that low tide has slowed efforts to dislodge it.

The Suez Canal Authority has said "the floatation efforts included towing and
pushing the grounding vessel using eight large tugboats; largest of which is
BARAKA 1 with a towing power of 160 tons."

It added that it was trying to rebalance the 224,000-tonne ship in the hope
that a high tide on Wednesday night would create enough extra draught to free
it.

According to Bloomberg, an "elite team" is getting ready to free the massive
container vessel and dredgers are still trying to loosen the vessel before
any attempt to pull it out.

It quoted one expert as saying the best chance for returning shipping to
normal may not come until Sunday or Monday.

READ MORE: What Suez Canal blockage could mean for global trade

But Peter Berdowski, CEO of Dutch company Boskalis, which is trying to free
the ship, said it was too early to say how long the job might take.

“We can’t exclude it might take weeks, depending on the situation,”
Berdowski told Reuters.

“It is like an enormous beached whale. It’s an enormous weight on the sand.
We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing
containers, oil and water from the ship, tug boats and dredging of sand," he
added.

Around 50 vessels per day use the Suez Canal, according to Panjiva, the
supply chain research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Container ships
accounted for 52.7% of the tonnage in 2019 transiting the canal including
shipments from Asia to Europe and the US east coast as well as vice-versa.

The canal has had to contend with ever larger container vessels using the
average tonnage per container ship reaching 119,000 tons in the 12 months to
28 February, 2020 from 93,500 in 2015, Panjiva said.

"The Suez jam is still very much headache for international trade, which is
threatening the international supply chain. Efforts are being made to
dislodge the ship, but the reality is that a matter doesn't only rely on the
expert team, but luck also needs to play its part," said Naeem Aslam, chief
market analyst at AvaTrade.

"A high tide isn't expected before Sunday, and this means that shipping
traffic is likely to remain jammed for a few days," he added.

The Ever Given was launched in 2018 and is owned by Japanese firm Shoei Kisen
Kaisha. It is chartered by Taiwan-based Evergreen Marine and a German company
called Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) is responsible for its
day-to-day operational running.

"BSM’s immediate priorities are to safely re-float the vessel and for marine
traffic in the Suez Canal to safely resume. The continued efforts of the Suez
Canal Authority and those involved in ongoing re-floating operations are
greatly appreciated," the company said in a statement.

"It’s one of the largest container ships in the world – 400 meters long,
somewhere between the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State Building – and is
fully loaded, so it’s really, really stuck," said Marshall Gittler, head of
investment research at BDSwiss Holding.

He estimates are that the ship may be blocking 2 million barrels a day of oil
and petroleum products.

The Ever Given is able to carry the equivalent of 20,000 units of 20ft
containers (teu), twice as much as the largest ships afloat just a decade
ago, The Telegraph reported.

"Although such ships have brought great efficiencies to their owners, they
have been criticised for slowing down supply chains and causing accidents in
ports and waterways they are too big for," the publication said.

It also said 19,000 ships pass through the canal every year.

Brent futures (BZ=F) were down 1.2% to $63.65 (￡46.5) and crude futures
(CL=F) were 1.4% lower to $60.30.

Earlier in the week on Tuesday, oil futures dropped as much as 6% amid
concerns that the COVID-19 third wave could lead to oversupply in the market.

On Wednesday they rebounded after news that the canal, a key waterway for
global trade, was being blocked by a container ship that has run aground and
is delaying ship movement.

Prices were also boosted by data showing US gasoline demand improved and
refinery run rates were picking up.

“As much as those (Suez blockage and US demand) factors were there, it doesn
’t really erase the demand concerns questions that were asked earlier this
week,” CNBC quoted Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar as
saying.

“And while the focus was on Europe, we also have rising COVID-19 cases in
places like India and Brazil, developing economies which are really critical
to the story for sustainable oil demand growth," he added.

Noting that about 10% of global seaborne oil passes through the canal,
Gittler had earlier said that the problem should be soon fixed “so I doubt
if it will have much lasting impact."

機翻如下：

週二一艘巨型貨櫃船擱淺後，蘇伊士運河這條主要水道被堵塞，儘管人們努力搬移這艘船
，但運河仍然被堵塞。媒體報導稱，這造成蘇伊士地區150多個貨櫃大量排隊，影響了週
三全球航運交通以及油價。

目前還不清楚移船需要多長時間。一些專家說可能在未來幾天內完成，而其他專家則警告
說可能需要數周時間。

這艘船擋住了在蘇伊士河上雙向行駛的其他船隻的去路，使全球13%的貿易陷入停頓。預
計每天將有價值約100億美元(73億英鎊)的貨物加入堵塞行列，直到貨櫃被移開。

埃及拖船至今未能將該船拉開，週四上午有報導稱，退潮減緩了移開該船的努力。

蘇伊士運河管理局表示，"浮動工作包括使用8艘大型拖船拖拽和推動擱淺船隻；其中最大
的是BARAKA 1號，拖動力為160噸。"

它補充說，它正試圖重新平衡這艘22.4萬噸級的船，希望週三晚上的漲潮能產生足夠的額
外吃水來釋放它。

據彭博社報導，一支 "精英團隊 "正準備解救這艘巨大的貨櫃船，挖泥船仍在試圖在任何
試圖拉出這艘船之前將其鬆開。

它援引一位專家的話說，航運恢復正常的最佳機會可能要到周日或週一才能到來。

但正在試圖解救這艘船的荷蘭公司Boskalis的首席執行官Peter Berdowski表示，現在說
這項工作可能需要多長時間還為時過早。

"我們不能排除可能需要數周時間，這取決於情況，"Berdowski告訴路透社。

"它就像一條巨大的被擱淺的鯨魚。它是沙地上的巨大重量。我們可能要通過清除船上的
貨櫃、油和水、拖船和挖沙來減輕重量，"他補充道。

根據標普全球市場情報公司供應鏈研究部門Panjiva的資料，每天約有50艘船使用蘇伊士
運河。在2019年過境運河的噸位中，貨櫃船占52.7%，包括從亞洲到歐洲和美國東海岸以
及反過來的貨運。

Panjiva表示，運河不得不應對越來越大的貨櫃船使用，在截至2020年2月28日的12個月內
，每艘貨櫃船的平均噸位從2015年的9.35萬噸達到11.9萬噸。
"蘇伊士號的堵塞對於國際貿易來說還是非常頭疼的，它威脅著國際供應鏈。目前正在努
力驅離船隻，但現實是，一件事情不僅要靠專家團隊，運氣也需要發揮作用。"AvaTrade
首席市場分析師Naeem Aslam說。

"預計周日之前不會出現高潮，這意味著航運交通可能會持續擁堵幾天，"他補充道。

Ever Given號於2018年推出，由日本公司Shoei Kisen Kaisha擁有。它由臺灣長榮海運公
司租用，一家名為Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement（BSM）的德國公司負責其日常運營
運行。

"BSM的當務之急是安全地重新浮起該船，並使蘇伊士運河的海上交通安全恢復。我們非常
感謝蘇伊士運河管理局和參與正在進行的重新漂浮作業的人員的持續努力，"該公司在一
份聲明中說。

"這是世界上最大的貨櫃船之一--400米長，介於埃菲爾鐵塔和帝國大廈之間--而且是滿載
而歸，所以它真的，真的被卡住了，"BDSwiss Holding的投資研究主管Marshall Gittler
說。

他估計，這艘船每天可能會堵住200萬桶石油和石油產品。

據《電訊報》報導，"Ever Given "號能夠運載相當於2萬個20英尺貨櫃（teu）的貨物，
是10年前海上最大船隻的兩倍。

"雖然這種船舶給船東帶來了巨大的效率，但它們被批評為拖慢了供應鏈，並在對它們來
說太大的港口和水道上造成事故，"該出版物說。

該刊物還稱，每年有1.9萬艘船舶通過運河。

布倫特期貨(BZ=F)跌1.2%至63.65美元(46.5英鎊)，原油期貨(CL=F)跌1.4%至60.30美元。

週二早些時候，由於擔心COVID-19第三波可能導致市場供應過剩，石油期貨下跌了6%之多
。

週三，在有消息稱全球貿易的關鍵水道--運河被一艘貨櫃船擱淺堵塞，導致船舶行駛延遲
後，它們有所反彈。

資料顯示美國汽油需求改善，煉油廠運行率回升，也提振了價格。

"儘管這些（蘇伊士海峽封鎖和美國需求）因素是存在的，但這並不能真正消除本周早些
時候提出的需求擔憂問題，"CNBC援引英聯邦銀行大宗商品分析師Vivek Dhar的話說。

"雖然重點在歐洲，但我們在印度和巴西等地也有不斷上升的COVID-19案例，這些發展中
經濟體對石油需求可持續增長的故事真的很關鍵，"他補充道。

注意到全球約有10%的海運石油通過該運河，吉特勒早些時候曾表示，這個問題應該很快
就會得到解決，"所以我懷疑它是否會有什麼持久的影響"。




心得/評論：

船太大，22.4萬噸的船

就算弄了八條最大的拖運船(拖動力160噸)來也是杯水車薪

只能期待他被漲潮托起來自己開走

現在就是預計先把貨櫃弄下來減輕重量看看會不會好一點

這也比用怪手挖運河岸的砂子實際

雖然說可能塞到周日，不過也還好

短期的波動還是心理因素大於實際影響

油價也是繼續跌一個稀巴爛

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