Re: Trend - 財經

※ 引述《stasis (流雨風雪)》之銘言：
: Trends
: The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends.

趨勢是你的朋友，只除了在結尾它反轉的時候。

: ==
: Most traders agree they like to be long strong instruments. Traders agree
: less on the definition of strong. Some definitions of strong from the web,

絕大多數的交易者都同意，他們喜歡做多強勢的金融工具。
交易者對於強勢的定義並不那麼一致。
從網路上找來的「強勢」的定義有：

: include:
: having strength or power greater than average or expected.
: potent: having or wielding force or authority.
: impregnable: able to withstand attack.

具備的強度或力量大於平均值或期望值。
有效力：具有力量或能施加影響的力量或權威。
堅定不移：能夠抵擋攻擊。

: None of these definitions seem to fit stocks, bonds or futures exactly.
: Trading instruments do not possess muscles or authority or even a physical
: structure. So traders who use the term strength, really mean something else,
: likely, trending up.

這些定義，沒有一個精確的適用於股票、債券或期貨。
交易工具並不是肌肉，也不是權威，更不是有形的結構。
使用「強度」這個詞的交易者，其實是在講其他的東西，
很可能，他們是在講向上的趨勢。

: The preference for the word, strength over trending, may owe to the richness
: and variety of gut associations people have with strong and the rather sparse
: and obscure associations they have with with trend.

人們選擇的字彙，之所以選擇強度而非趨勢，
可能歸於人們對於對於「強度」的各式各樣直覺或心理因素，
以及人們對於趨勢的缺乏認識。

: A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data. All measurements of
: trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing
: them. If the current reading is higher than the historical reading, we have
: an up-trend. If lower, we have a down-trend. In the improbable event of an
: exact match, we have a sideways trend.

趨勢是在一組資料中呈現的漂移的現象，或是某種傾向。
所有對於趨勢的測定方法，必須將一個當前的數字和一個歷史數字作比較。
如果當前的數字高於歷史數字，那麼我們就是在上升趨勢中。
如果是低於的話，它就是下降趨勢。
如果那麼剛好就相等的話，它就是側行趨勢。

: The direction of the trend depends upon the method we use to perform the
: comparison. Real instruments fluctuate minute-to-minute, day-to-day and
: year-to-year. We have, therefore an enormous supply of historical points to
: use to determine trend. As such, we can determine as many instances of trend
: as we please, in any direction that we please.

趨勢的方向決定於我們拿來比較的方法。
真實世界中的金融工具，每分鐘，每天，每年，都在不斷變動。
因此我們手上擁有非常充足的歷史資料來做比對，來判定趨勢的方向。
這樣一來，我們高興判定多少趨勢就判定多少，高興判定哪個方向就判定哪個方向。

: There is no such thing as the trend; there are countless trends, depending on
: the method we use to determine a trend. People typically pick a method for
: determining trend that fits with their current positions and/or view of the
: market.

沒有唯一的趨勢這種東西。無數多的趨勢，取決於我們判定趨勢的方法。
人們通常都是選擇能夠和現有部位，或者現有看法吻合的方法，來判定趨勢。

: ==
: There's No Such Thing as an Uptrend Forever
: Note: In the case of a monotonically increasing series, such as the balance
: of a US dollar bank account with daily compounding interest, every price is
: above all its predecessors. You can make a claim, then, that no matter how
: you measure it, the trend is always up.

沒有永遠的上升趨勢這種東西。

註：在那種單一上升數列的例子中，例如每日計息的美金帳戶，每個價格都比前一個高。
那麼你就能主張，無論你如何測定趨勢，趨勢永遠是向上的。

: However, in a larger scope, in a world in which the US dollar fluctuates in
: value relative to other currencies, and in which banks sometimes fail, a bank
: account may not actually continue to be a long-term monotonic up-trend
: investment.

然而，在大一點的時間格局中，美金和其他貨幣的相對價格不斷變動，
銀行有時也會倒，銀行帳戶可能就沒辦法成為一個長期上升趨勢的投資。

: Say we compound one penny at a three percent per year interest rate from year
: Zero-AD to the present. We get about $5.48 * 10^23, or around a half
: trillion trillion dollars. Clearly someone in those early days has a penny
: earning interest, per stories of money lenders in temples. That no such
: investment survives today indicates severe financial setbacks, from time to
: time, in which people and whole societies experience collapse and have to
: start over. Compounding interest seems to work pretty well for a few hundred
: years at a time.

假設我們以複利計算，一分錢在每年3%的利率之下，從西元初到現在。
我們得到的數字大約是$5.48 * 10^23，也就是五千兆個一萬兆。
從廟宇的借貸歷史來看，很顯然當時有一分錢的人也可以拿得到利息。
而從現在看不到這種投資的狀況來看，表示金融的逆流。
從一個時代到另一個時代，人類和整個社會都歷經過崩塌，必須一次次重來。
複利這東西在幾百年的時間格局中，似乎都表現得不錯。

: ==
: All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical
: price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is
: no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend
: might mean; we can only determine historical trends.

所有定義趨勢的方法都會比較各式的歷史價格點。
所有的趨勢都基於歷史，沒有單獨存活於現在的。
我們沒有辦法判定現今的趨勢，甚至沒辦法定義什麼叫做「現今的趨勢」，
我們能做的只是判定歷史趨勢。

: The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would
: be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion,
: velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots.
: Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent
: meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or
: another view of history.

唯一能測定現今趨勢(也就是完全只存在於「現在」的趨勢)的方法，就是
從「現在」取出兩個點，然後計算它們的差異。
運動，速率，還有趨勢都不存在於「現在」。
他們不會在快照中出現。
趨勢不存在於「現在」，而所謂「唯一的趨勢」這東西也沒有意義。
當我們說趨勢，我們其實是在說歷史的一個角度。

: There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are
: necessarily projecting our own definitions.
: With that in mind, we can proceed to examine ways to define, compute and use
: trends.

沒有「現今的趨勢」這種東西。我們說到趨勢時，只是在投射我們的定義而已。
從這個概念出發，我們才能夠真正的去檢視各種方法來定義、計算還使用趨勢。


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好難翻啊
一方面又覺得它講得很玄
一方面又覺得它講得很清楚 XD

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這個世界多美麗

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