Nvidia Q3 財報不如預期 盤後下跌15% - 股票

整理一下:
2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Revenue 1.9B 2.2B 2.64B 2.91B 3.21B 3.12B 3.18B
毛利 59.4% 58.4% 59.5% 61.9% 64.5% 63.3% 60.4
淨利 0.5B 0.58B 0.83B 1.08B 1.2B 1.1B 1.23B
EPS(USD): 0.79 0.92 1.33 1.78 1.98 1.76 1.97

營收(QoQ)-

1. Gaming : 1.8 -> 1.76 B
2. Datacenter : 0.76B -> 0.79 B
3. Professional Visualization: 0.28B -> 0.3 B
4. Auto : 0.16B -> 0.172 B
5. OEM/IP : 0.16 -> 0.148 B


昨天盤後交易就GG 了~~ QQ

目前下跌 16.x%，成交 169.3 。

坦白說這次財報的內容應該沒這麼負面，EPS 1.97 和淨利 1.23B 其實和歷史
高點 Q2 差不多 (淨利還高一點?)

推測市場反應這麼大與 Q4 展望有關，預估營收為 2.7B +- 2%
毛利介於 62.3~ 62.5%.
也就是說過去連續幾季營收逐季跳增的好日子差不多要回歸現實了..
除了本業Gaming 因為Q1 挖礦需求通路大量囤貨，虛擬貨幣挖礦熱度衰退後
導致庫存過高外 (外媒報導庫存為12週)，Datacenter/Auto 雖然仍成長但
幅度還未能大幅提升獲利....

還有中美貿易戰導致市場信心不足，也是最近科技股波動劇烈的因素之一~

算一下過去四季的 eps 約為 7.4x 假設今年最後一季 eps 還有成長 0.5 好了
那麼全年 eps 是 8 元上下，對照目前股價 169...本益比約 21 倍...
已經是近兩年歷史低檔的區間了

不負責估計本益比區間為 20~30倍, 股價區間為 160~240....
也許可以搶搶反彈，不過動作可要快...QQ






※ 引述《ss910126 (Yukino my wife)》之銘言：
: 1.原文連結：
: https://reurl.cc/MAmbn
: 2.原文內容：
: Nvidia Q3 disappoints, shares plummet
: Nvidia (NVDA) reported a big miss on both the top and bottom lines for Q3
: after market close on Thursday.
: The chipmaker earned $1.84 per share which was weaker than the $1.92 per
: share that was anticipated, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg.
: This is Nvidia’s first EPS miss in 13 quarters. Shares tanked 13% in
: after-hours trade on Thursday. Revenue also came in worse than expected at
: $3.18 billion versus consensus of $3.24 billion.
: Investors and analysts have been paying close attention to
: graphics-processing unit (GPU) sales in Q3, as this was the first earnings
: report since the company launched GPUs. GPU business revenue came in at $2.77
: billion, which was up 25% year over year.
: “Our introduction of Turing GPUs is a giant leap for computer graphics and
: AI, bringing the magic of real-time ray tracing to games and the biggest
: generational performance improvements we have ever delivered,” CEO Jensen
: Huang said in a statement.
: Nvidia shares have been underperforming the broad market in the past year,
: falling nearly 5% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has risen 5% in the same time
: period. The chip giant is currently in a bear market after hitting an
: all-time high in early October.
: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 小弟簡單翻譯，如有錯誤歡迎指正
: 1.每股賺 1.84 元，低於分析師 1.92元的預期
: 2.營收3.18 billion ，低於分析師預期 3.24 billion
: 這是nvidia 在近13季以來第一次eps未達預期，盤後下跌13% (我發文的時候是15%)
: 3.GPU 事業營收 2.77 billion ，年成長25%
: 4.老黃講話:我們發表的圖靈gpu 是一個在ai以及電腦圖形運算的重大突破，將神奇的
: 即時光追蹤技術帶到遊戲
: -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 3.心得/評論：
: 小弟一直以來都有來回操作NVDA，雖然財報不如預期，但要仔細去研究遊戲顯示卡的營收
: 我認為才是重點。這次的營收下滑，跟虛擬貨幣狂潮過去也有關係，虛擬貨幣狂潮過去
: 剩下的重點才是這間公司真正的價值:AI， 遊戲顯示卡

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