Brazil's real, Turkish lira rise after - 股票

原文標題：

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real, Turkish lira rise after rate hikes; Russian
rouble falls

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/E2bxYK

發布時間：

Fri, March 19, 2021, 3:33 AM

原文內容：

* Real jumps as c.bank hikes by 75 bps
* Colombian peso reverses early declines
* Russian rouble resumes slide after Putin responds to Biden
* Brazilian carrier Gol drops, cuts outlook (Adds comments, updates prices
throughout) By Susan Mathew and Shreyashi Sanyal March 18

(Reuters) - The Brazilian real and Turkey's lira outperformed broader
emerging market peers on Thursday, following interest rate hikes by their
respective central banks, while rising geopolitical tensions weighed on
Russia's rouble. The lira extended gains to 2.6% against the greenback after
a hefty 200-basis-point (bps) hike, while Brazil's real was up 0.6%, trimming
early gains of almost 2%, after the central bank delivered a
larger-than-expected 75-bps raise after the market closed overnight.

"The interest rate differentials for Turkey are outstanding, the policy rate
is now at 19% and since the lira has been battered since mid-February, long
lira bets could grow," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Delivering its first interest rate hike in nearly six years, Brazil's
rate-setting committee, Copom, raised the key rate to 2.75%, and flagged a
similar move in May to fight inflation despite rising economic uncertainty.
"We expect the move will prove effective in anchoring inflation expectations
and supporting the credibility of the (Brazilian) Central Bank," said Samar
Maziad, senior sovereign analyst at Moody's.

"However, in a context of a worsening pandemic and given the slow pace of
vaccination, higher interest rates add downside risks to economic growth
prospects for the rest of the year." The real is among the worst performing
emerging market currencies, with worries about fiscal spending, political
interference and rising inflation pushing it around 7% lower for the year.
Russia's rouble traded 0.7% lower after

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a quip to U.S. counterpart
Joe Biden's warning of consequences for alleged Russian involvement in the
2020 U.S. elections, saying he wished the U.S. president good health.
Washington is expected to impose new sanctions on Moscow as soon as next
week.

The rouble had fallen 1% on Wednesday. Declining oil prices also weighed on
the crude-exporting nation's currency. By afternoon trading, Colombia's peso
rose 0.7%, while Mexico's peso edged 0.2% lower after data showed the
country's economy contracted by 4.0% in February compared to the same month a
year earlier.

Brazilian stocks fell 1.5% as state-owned oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA
and consumer stocks like Magazine Luiza SA and Vale SA. Brazil's largest
airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes fell 6% after the company said it was
cutting its outlook for early 2021.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1924 GMT: Stock indexes
Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1345.01 0.16 MSCI LatAm 2317.51
0.31 Brazil Bovespa 114759.40 -1.54 Mexico IPC 47735.42 0.12 Chile IPSA
4878.75 -0.62 Argentina MerVal 49020.63 -1.795 Colombia COLCAP 1320.69 -1.7
Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.5581 0.48 Mexico peso 20.4622
-0.36 Chile peso 719.4 0.40 Colombia peso 3545.1 0.68 Peru sol 3.7078 -0.13
Argentina peso 91.2800 -0.08 (interbank) Argentina peso 141 2.13 (parallel)
(Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; editing by
Jonathan Oatis, Alexandra Hudson)


機翻如下：

*實際匯率隨著銀行升息75個基點而大幅上漲
*哥倫比亞比索扭轉了早前的跌勢
*普京對拜登做出回應後，俄羅斯盧布恢復下滑
*巴西航空公司Gol下跌，削減了前景

路透社18日電-巴西雷亞爾和土耳其里拉週四跑贏大盤，原因是各自中央銀行加息，而地
緣政治緊張局勢加劇令俄羅斯盧布受壓。在大幅上漲200個基點（bps）後，里拉兌美元的
漲幅擴大至2.6％，而巴西雷亞爾上漲了0.6％，削減了近2％的早期漲幅，此前該國央行
實現了超出預期的漲幅。隔夜市場收盤後上漲了75個基點。

OANDA高級市場分析師愛德華‧莫亞（Edward Moya）表示：“土耳其的利差懸殊，政策利
率目前為19％，而且自2月中旬以來里拉受到打擊，長期的里拉賭注可能會增長，”

巴西的利率設定委員會Copom交付了近六年來的首次加息，將關鍵利率提高到2.75％，並
在5月宣布了類似的舉措，儘管經濟不確定性不斷增加，但仍在抗擊通貨膨脹。穆迪高級
主權分析師薩瑪爾‧馬扎德（Samar Maziad）表示：“我們預計此舉將證明對穩定通脹預
期和支持（巴西）中央銀行的信譽有效。”

“但是，在大流行病惡化和疫苗接種步伐緩慢的情況下，較高的利率給今年餘下時間的
經濟增長前景帶來了下行風險。”雷亞爾是表現最差的新興市場貨幣之一，其對財政支出
，政治干預和通貨膨脹率的擔憂使全年匯率下跌約7％。

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾‧普京（Vladimir Putin）對美國總統喬‧拜登（Joe Biden）警
告稱涉嫌俄羅斯參與2020年美國大選後果的警告後，俄羅斯盧布下跌0.7％。預計華盛頓
最快將在下週對莫斯科實施新的製裁。

盧布週三下跌了1％。石油價格下跌也打壓了原油出口國的貨幣。午後交易中，哥倫比亞
比索上漲0.7％，而墨西哥比索小幅下跌0.2％，此前有數據顯示該國2月份經濟同比下降
4.0％。

巴西股市下跌1.5％，原因是國有石油生產商Petroleo Brasileiro SA和Magazine Luiza
SA和Vale SA等消費類股票。巴西最大的航空公司Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes下跌6
％，此前該公司表示將下調2021年初的前景。

格林尼治1924主要拉丁美洲股票指數和貨幣：

股票指數最新每日百分比變動

MSCI新興市場1345.01 0.16

MSCI LatAm 2317.51 0.31

巴西Bovespa 114759.40 -1.54

墨西哥IPC 47735.42 0.12

智利IPSA 4878.75 -0.62

阿根廷MerVal 49020.63 -1.795

哥倫比亞COLCAP 1320.69 -1.7

貨幣最新每日百分比變化

巴西雷亞爾5.5581 0.48

墨西哥比索20.4622 -0.36

智利比索719.4 0.40

哥倫比亞比索3545.1 0.68

秘魯sol 3.707 -0.1

阿根廷比索91.2800 -0.08（銀行間）

阿根廷比索141 2.13（平行）

（Shreyashi Sanyal和Susan Mathew在班加羅爾的報導; Jonathan Oatis，Alexandra
Hudson編輯）


心得/評論：

各國央行為了不造成恐慌，通常會講得比較保守

同時必須仔細觀察市場狀況

如果市場反應陷入恐慌，那就會有相當程度的大幅修正

最壞的狀況是發生骨牌效應觸發斷崖式的下跌

當然，也有可能是靜水深流的狀況。


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