2515中工 - 股票
By Audriana
at 2021-01-24T09:41
at 2021-01-24T09:41
Table of Contents
1. 標的:2515 中工
2. 分類:請益
3. 分析/正文:
中工目前有一個大案子「土城 AI 智慧園區」
根據報導此案預計2023年完工,總銷金額超過300億元,成本136億元,總面積10萬5千坪
看準智慧產業潛力 土城AI智慧產業園區今動土
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-08-13/450285
中工160億廠辦聯貸案 簽約
https://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/101260281916.html
新北市都更網站的資料也可以互相印證,此案價值351.11億元,成本166.64億元
https://twur.cpami.gov.tw/zh/urban/rebuild/view/709
如果根據官方資料計算:
毛利:351.11億元-166.64億元=184.47億元
營業費用:
就簡單以近5年資料,約占營收的6.5%計算,營業費用為22.82億元
(其實中工近幾年營業費用率逐年遞減,這樣計算是有點保守的)
營業利益:184.47億元-22.82億元=161.65億元
所得稅:
先不管什麼土增稅與營所稅,直接以過去公司所得稅約占營收1%計算
351.11億元*1%=3.51億元
稅後淨利:161.65億元-3.51億元=158.14億元
中工目前發行股數為1,530,899,822股
此案估計每股盈餘為10.33元
目前依據2020第三季季報,中工每股淨值只有12.89元
只計算2023年此案完工後,每股淨值就有23.22元,幾乎是翻倍成長
中工1/22收盤價只有8.94元
如果此案2023年如預期完工,根據過往資料,股價淨值比最高可以來到0.8倍
股價也有18.5,跟目前比起來也是翻倍
本文只是請益,以上計算不知道有沒有什麼想錯地方,希望各位板友幫忙指正
4. 進退場機制:
停損:後續若土城AI智慧園區開發狀況不如預期
停利:若2023土城AI智慧園區順利完工,股價到達每股淨值出場
--
Tags:
股票
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