2330台積電 多頭-10月突破466.5塊防線 - 股票

By Joseph
at 2020-10-11T18:56
at 2020-10-11T18:56
Table of Contents
1. 標的:2330台積電
2. 分類:多
3. 分析/正文:
我們台灣加權指數老大哥2330台積電
自從7/28股價達到高峰466.5塊以後
已經沉靜了2個多月
這2個多月曾經有2次想要突破這466塊防線
但是都沒有挑戰成功
這一次,沒錯就是這一次,right now!!!
小弟個人很看好本月
說實在的貪心一點大概是下周1-2很有可能股價可以突破466塊防線
究竟為什麼前2個多月沒辦法達到的事情
我現在會做這個大膽預測呢
原因是在於以下5個技術分析指標
依據1:評論台積電為全台灣體質最優良的公司也不為過
https://imgur.com/9JIArbI
台積電自從7/28達到466.5塊以後
已經2個多月都在466-423塊區間內做盤整
即便美股在9月中跌破月線
台積電還是一整個不動如山,非常穩重
護國神山2330台積電,整間公司乘載著台灣人的夢想(不好意思扯遠了)
回到7月底的時間點,我記得當時一堆分析師喊著「台積電股價上看500塊!!」
我想當時他們是用EPS:18塊、本益比28的設定去做評估
台積電,這一間體質優良的好公司
EPS持續突破18-20塊創造高峰,不是一個口號而已,只是時間上的問題
以它公司營運穩健的角度去做評估,股價持續往上走- 勢在必行
依據2:美股台股整體大盤10月持續多頭發生
https://imgur.com/fRyncbN
這一個部份我先用美股NASDAQ來做一個判斷
美股NASDAQ9月總共跌了12.8%
但是台積電它不動還是不動
雖然說有小跌到月線以下
但是很明顯撐在423塊以上
美股9月走了一個小空頭,沒有發生大跌
這個月10月初股價走回到月線以上
代表10月很有可能整體資金回流,整體大盤持續走多頭
在整體大盤持續走多頭的情況下
會連動帶動台積電上攻突破466塊
依據3:台積電ADR就起飛位置
https://imgur.com/AVGjhKn
台積電ADR上周10/7-10/9已經突破先前高點86.79塊
KD指標也開始進入80↑ 【FEVER過熱狀態】
有台積電先行指標的ADR
很有可能可以帶動台積電股價往上攻
4. 法人連續7天買超,持續佈局
https://imgur.com/qcz07lf
在9月中法人連續賣超6天的情況下
台積電還是一整個跌不破423塊
所以等之後法人資金開始回流佈局
已經連續7天進行買超佈局的動作
我相信法人外資這些餓狼也是在虎視眈眈等待台積電上攻突破466塊成功
依據5:KD指標已經2個多月沒有達到80↑
https://imgur.com/GH1TqmK
KD指標2個多月沒有達到80↑進入過熱的階段
如同2個多月沒有打手...遊的男朋友一樣
它已經悶了很久!!!
我們一定要釋放它這種悶太久的壓力
身為男性朋友一定知道悶久了對身心靈都不健康!!(抱歉又扯遠了)
在KD指標悶了這麼久的情況下
綜述上列各個指標都就指定起飛位置
照常理來說10月是應該讓台積電的KD指標爆發一波的
---------------------------------------------
除了上述5個指標以外
當然還有其他【本業面】跟【新聞面】的消息
但是因為這些不是小弟的強項
就不再此論述
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
退場股價跌破1.月線, 2.423塊
以上請各位參考看看
文字敘述不如影像輔助口述的方式來的清楚說明
另外我有做口述分析的影片,歡迎各位投資朋友來留言討論
謝謝各位
https://youtu.be/TNvZuE-al6k
看到這麼多留言說我過度樂觀,他們覺得放心
我也覺得很安心(?)
先前我在板上有發表2篇文章
當時台積電過熱一路想往上衝的時候發的【不要亂上車勸世文(?)】
7/28 [標的] 護國神山-台積電-不多 文章代碼(AID): #1V81j1dV
8/3 [心得] 4種 8月進場布局台積電的方式 文章代碼(AID): #1V9_ldwy
現在回頭看文章當時還被一堆人酸風向不對,因為我沒上車才這樣寫...囧
有興趣的版友可以回去點開笑笑無妨
--
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