2020 上半年報 - 股票
By Joe
at 2020-07-05T12:04
at 2020-07-05T12:04
Table of Contents
今年的盤勢主要受到了疫情影響真是高潮迭起, 雖然三月的崩跌連 8500 點都沒破
但而後隨之而來的資金行情和兇猛漲勢絕對可讓 2020 年在台股歷史記上一筆
三月崩跌時在月中收到了這樣的站內信
https://imgur.com/a/YYRoJ0j
當時也是會納悶, 看到賺錢的單子真的會增加信心?
不過心想也好, 這樣短時間的大崩盤, 有的人不想遇到, 但也有的人等待了很久
那就等三月季底時來回顧一下, 結果沒想到三月下旬就開始一連串的反彈...
股版也瞬間從 KTV 版恢復正常, 加上當時新制度上線也還在適應中
所以就這樣等到了年中才整理了對帳單
2020 年上半年獲利約 6900 萬 (若含七月 3 個交易日是已過 7000 萬)
(逐月大約是: 1月250W, 2月450W 3月1100W, 4月1500W, 5月1200W, 6月2400W)
證券帳戶一 +6665 萬
https://youtu.be/XQM7m4vkCrA
證券帳戶二 +1814 萬
https://youtu.be/4sxUUDwkooU
期權帳戶 Q1 +370 萬
https://youtu.be/GBDRAldadoM
期權帳戶 Q2 +215 萬
https://youtu.be/PsZwRXBuxXo
軟體顯示的已實現獲利較實際高的原因, 是因為有做些申購競拍之類的標的
那些股票的成本在券商軟體中看不出來以至於顯示的會較高
若沒有太大意外的話今年單年獲利應該就能衝破億
(七八月除權息旺季 + 未來還有一些新的想法會陸續實測)
操作的標的也如同以往提過的, 主要涵蓋了現貨、權證、股期、CB
專職 5 年多的累積獲利目前也到達了 2 億多 (終於不再是平常只能嘴砲的那種 2 億)
所以也會開始希望保留些隱私, 況且類似的數字一直貼, 看倌們是否也會麻木?
因此若沒特別原因之後應就不會再貼年度對帳單
未來目標基本上就是每年獲利至少以億為單位累積下去
然後自我審視還能做到什麼樣的程度就好
其實今年的行情撇開二月下跌的那段不說 (那段基本上是只要有持股多少都會傷到)
如果後續這段反彈沒有賺到錢的, 真的只能說是操作要檢討, 需要好好反省
特別 Q2 周遭蠻多人獲利都創了新高, 今年績效超過我的也是大有人在
所以那些每每說等待下次崩跌時要進場撈一筆, 但真的來時又沒能好好把握的人
是在哈囉? (周遭不少散戶型的友人是這樣沒錯)
一月底封關前安排了出國, 加上本來就是習慣過年前會清帳所以幾乎都不太留倉
以往頂多會買些台指期或選擇權等等年後開紅盤行情
但今年因為覺得年前實在也算漲高, 加上那時其實武漢已經有肺炎相關新聞傳出
雖然剛開始外界還沒有太大反應, 但我的想法就是過年間要再支持年後大漲的利多有限
但相反的國際只要有些許利空, 下方回檔的空間卻是相對大, 加上又在國外
所以今年連開紅盤也完全空手沒留, 以至於完全閃過這波三千多點的下跌
因為沒有套牢的部位, 二月三月中間的反彈也較能積極短進短出以取得些利潤
至於四到六月的行情如同各位所看到的, 開啟了台股所謂的生技元年、瘋狂之旅
三月四月有原油之亂, 然後到四月開始的防疫概念股爆發 (口罩 醫材)
接著遠距視訊、生技疫苗、檢測、新藥原料樂、紡織.. 陸續接力演出
一直到最近的 IC 設計、5G 網通、高價股...等, 資金不斷輪動和尋找主流
用一句話形容, 真的是強勢股你只要敢買, 它就敢漲給你看
因為三月底逐筆交易的新制, 四月我還有些觀望以致於稍慢了一步進場
後來實在是發現當時的權證市場不適合介入 (因為二月不少發行商慘賠, 很多已變價外
新的權證發行也暫緩, 加上券商也在觀望逐筆對市場的影響, 所以造市差、掛單也少)
以至於後來乾脆把重心都轉移到現貨市場
選股的方式以前也都提過了, 就是以上述市場主流、資金匯集的重點股為主
(主要也是短波段為主, 所以基本上每階段市場主流股當初手上應都曾持有過一輪)
加上後續也漸漸適應新的市場制度, 所以後期交易量、持股部位、獲利整個都拉了上來
目前上半年生技整體的飆漲期感覺先暫告一段落
之後就是隨著疫情的嚴重或減緩針對其中個股可能還有一些短線表現機會
另外則是近期還有生技展這個利多, 但也要小心淪為最後出貨工具
如果發現有個股的股價對題材的反應愈來愈不明顯, 可能就要跑得比以往還快
至於下半年主軸應會回到電子身上, 特別因為肺炎延宕的 5G 題材、5G 手機
(因為預期 7 月各家 5G 開台的效應發酵, 個人也佈局了一些下週即將上市的
00876 元大未來關鍵科技 ETF)
美中角力產生的去美化、去陸化台廠轉單效應 (像近期的 IC 設計、台積電概念股等)
都是之後可以觀察的重點
--
Tags:
股票
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