1305 華夏 多 - 股票
![Frederic avatar](/img/cat1.jpg)
By Frederic
at 2021-04-30T09:54
at 2021-04-30T09:54
Table of Contents
因為過完年之後買的標的,到三月漲到目標了,所以三月底有研究一些二線塑化股,像是
聯成、亞聚、台聚、華夏等,及其他很多傳產類股,大概三月底財報出來後,雖然都在半
山腰上了,但都是非常好布局的時間點。
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e683e/20559237/1241415097_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e683e/20559237/1241415097_x.jpg)
4月中,低點就在高中群叫朋友補幾張
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e683f/20559237/1241415098_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e683f/20559237/1241415098_x.jpg)
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e6840/20559237/1241415099_x.jpg)
挑選標的條件:
1. 營收1~2月創高,但要注意有些傳產,是因為2月工作天數少,
客戶怕斷料或漲價,所以提前拉貨,導致很多1月營收都是歷史新高。
2. 4Q財報三率三升。
3. 觀察現階段產品的報價。
4. 因第四季暴強,所以配息也高的。
風險分析:
以這隻華夏為例,可以看到盈餘分配率近年都在70~80%左右,而且今年配1.8+0.5,即便
是當時進場,34~36元左右,還是有超過6%的殖利率,會很有支撐。
很多傳產去年2~6月都大烙賽,所以看今年第一季,年增率幾百%都是沒屁用,要比就跟去
年第四季的營收比。
今年1Q營收約49.8億,去年4Q營收為45.92億,而EPS是嚇死人的1.84,毛利率為38.64%。
所以可以初步判斷第一季財報應該是非常的厲害。預估應有2左右。
再來就是研究公司的產品以及原料。
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e68f7/20559237/1241414514_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e68f7/20559237/1241414514_x.jpg)
華夏主要原料是乙烯跟EDC,乙烯,去年美國增加新產能300萬噸,主要銷往亞洲市場,所
以基本供給上基本是寬鬆的,但EDC跟乙烯,今年2月受到德州冰風暴影響,及三、四月的
歲修,導致價格飆漲,所以這部分是需要注意。
主要產品是PVC,從3月法說會來看,目前庫存低水位,加上也因德州冰風暴影響,多家美
國的PVC供應鏈失衡,這部份也造成PVC漲價。
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e6814/20559237/1241414799_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e6814/20559237/1241414799_x.jpg)
但是!從表可以看到除了成本轉嫁外,PVC漲幅還比乙烯兇。
乙烯漲幅,最高17%,目前開始微幅跌價
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e68a2/20559237/1241415197_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e68a2/20559237/1241415197_x.jpg)
PVC24%,目前還在高點,所以1Q毛利很大機率會更高。
https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e6877/20559237/1241414898_x.jpg
![](https://3.share.photo.xuite.net/z24518261/13e6877/20559237/1241414898_x.jpg)
需求面:
現在中國需求強勁,印度也進入了加工旺季,但要注意的是,目前印度為疫情最嚴重的國
家…。其他國家也因為PVC原料不足,目前進口PVC價格看漲。
目前經濟復甦,所以一些工業、營建、汽車類的膠帶需求復甦,如果自己有再用的這些產
品的產業,應該很有感受到漲價…。
值得注意的是
1. 華夏5月份安排歲休。
2. 目前二線塑化投資人都以短線為主,震幅都是5%以上。主要是因為當沖及融資(某
隻二線塑化每天融資都幾千張在進出)的比例大幅提升,導致波動很大。
3. 買綠不買紅,買紅準備套,雖然長期看漲,但短期有資金需求的不建議進場追高
。
4. 注意後續PVC報價。
5. 目前三大法人回買,短期內應該還有機會突破前高
閒聊一下,現在原料真的漲幅很誇張也很缺,自己是在某鋼鐵公司上班,股價目前是去年
的三倍,然後跟最近上禮拜噴很兇的源頭訂的料,原預計四月要到的,居然5月底才會來
,真的很誇張。
另外
4/11這篇我有提到
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1618108989.A.178.html
台聚、亞聚、華夏、華紙、永豐餘,還有航運跟鋼鐵類的
還有大成、卜蜂跟記憶體,
自己看看當時到現在都噴多少了,
其實應該很多人都滿敏銳的,
只是沒有發文分享,默默低調賺而已。
以上跟各位分享。
--
Tags:
股票
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