推文有人在喊野村出來負責
我幫他們平反一下
人家二三月就說第一季業績會超預期
然後果然超預期
大家在high的時候
人家上個月底就downgrade了
這一波台積電野村抓的準準的
4/27的報告
TSMC’s guidance and comments beat market expectations (guidance of a flattish
2Q and 15-20% full-year sales growth vs Bloomberg consensus of -4% q-q and 13
% y-y, respectively, and the Street’s concerns of no growth in 2020). Managem
ent also stated that there have been no order cuts, contrary to market specula
tion. This is in line with our contrarian expectation. That said, we think the
risk-reward outlook will deteriorate into 2H20, with the share price having r
ebounded by 16% from its March trough (vs the TAIEX’s rise of 20%), pending r
isk of a stricter US ban on Huawei, and growing risks of an inventory correcti
on in 2H20. Accordingly, we downgrade TSMC to Neutral with an unchanged TP of
TWD310 (still based on 4.4x 2020F P/B). We keep our 2020F sales growth project
ion at 10-15% y-y, below guidance of 15-20% y-y. Our downgrade is simply from
a cycle and Huawei risk perspective. We continue to like TSMC’s long-term com
petitiveness and growth. Key risks to our downgrade are financial market liqui
dity and COVID-19 developments
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